- 1 month ago
For those of you who don't know, Barry Goldwater was a United States senator who was the Republican nominee for the presidency in 1964. In the primaries he had great success, as his strong conservative ideals led to great support from his party, so he soared to the nomination. However, he was often painted as a radical or extremist, and even found opposition within his own party from the liberal Republicans (basically the moderates of the day).
So after he won the nomination he needed to beat out the incumbent Lyndon B Johnson for the presidency. The results were not pretty for Goldwater. He lost the electoral college 486 to 52, as Johnson walked away with one of the biggest landslides ever. He won only 38.5% of the popular vote.
So what happened here? Johnson was very far right (for the time) and a large part of his party loved it, and excitedly nominated him. However, there were several members of his party who thought he was too extreme and couldn't vote for him, and nearly everyone not a member was opposed to him. There was no way he was gonna get independents or democrats to vote for him. He was too radical to win. However he did reshape the Republican party, eventually culminating in Reagan's back to back landslide victories (Reagan even campaigned for Goldwater in 64).
And so I get back to Sanders. He too had been a senator for a long time when he decided to run for president in 2020. He is without a doubt the farthest left of all the Democratic party's candidates. He is currently the frontrunner to win their nomination. However the establishment doesn't really want him and I think that he'd have trouble getting votes from moderate democrats, although many of them will pick him out of distaste for Trump.
Unless if his support drops dramatically or if the DNC pulls off some brokered convention stunt to chase him off I think he will be the nominee, and I think he will lose. Let me say first that I do think Trump will be re-elected. A recent Gallup poll gave him a 49% approval rating, the highest he's ever had. It also was their first pole where more people approved than disapproved. That approval rating of 49% is a bigger number than the 46.2% of the popular vote he got in 2016 and the 48.2% Clinton got. Along with this, the economy is doing really good, and whether or not you want to give him the credit for that the fact remains that incumbents with strong economies rarely lose. So for better or worse, I think Trump is beating anyone.
And boy is he hoping he gets to face Sanders. Sanders is on a similar path as Goldwater, a large portion of his party loves him because of how radical he is and he'll probably get the nomination for it, but his own party won't entirely gather around him and I think that more middle of the road voters won't like voting for him (although some may not like voting for Trump either). I don't think Trump is going to win all but 6 states as LBJ did, that's impossible, but I think he will win by a larger margin than in 2016, and will probably get a larger percentage of the popular vote, although he might not get as much as Sanders. He will paint Sanders as too far left and I think a lot of people will agree. The man has been a sympathizer for communist nations such as the USSR in the past and is a socialist. I don't think there are enough Millenials for someone like that to win. He has to rely too much on people who weren't alive to remember how bad communism is. (disclaimer: I'm a Millenial)
Am I writing this to Endorse Trump? By no means. I'm just saying Sanders will win the nomination and will get his butt kicked in November, just like Goldwater, and not unlike Jeremy Corbyn. I also think that in a similar way Sanders is reshaping the Democrat party, and maybe soon one of his supports will jump in and win the presidency just like Reagan did.
Maybe I'm wrong. I hope not though, cause this will be embarrassing looking back.